Nigeria’s current pain has found a convenient villain. President Bola Tinubu. But according to elder statesman and National Democratic Coalition General Secretary, Chief Ayo Opadokun, that narrative is not just lazy, it is dangerous.
Nigeria, he insists, is not suffering from three years of misgovernance. It is paying the price for nearly six decades of rule by the gun.
Speaking at the launch of his book, The Gun Hegemony, in Lagos, Opadokun delivered an indictment that shook the room. Nigeria, he said, has been misgoverned for about 57 of its 65 years of independence, largely under military dominance, direct and indirect.
Blaming Tinubu, he warned, ignores history and protects the real culprits.
57 Years Under One Political Culture
Opadokun laid out the numbers without emotion, but the implication was explosive.
From 1966 to 1979, the military ruled Nigeria for 13 years. From 1983 to 1999, another 16 years followed. That is 29 years of soldiers in uniform running the country.
But the gun did not leave power in 1999.
According to Opadokun, former military leaders returned in civilian garb, ruling through Olusegun Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari for another 16 years. When the civilian years of Shagari, Yar’Adua and Jonathan are added, Nigeria has effectively been governed by the same political tendency for 57 years.
That dominance, he said, entrenched loyalists across institutions, suffocating reform.
Why Tinubu Became the Punching Bag
“Some people blame Bola Tinubu for everything in the world,” Opadokun said, dismissing the outrage as selective amnesia.
He argued that no leader, no matter how skilled, can repair decades of structural decay in three years. Nigeria’s problems, he stressed, are older than democracy itself.
According to SKYTREND NEWS findings, public frustration has increasingly replaced historical analysis, creating a cycle where new administrations inherit blame for old failures.
Tax Reforms and the War Nobody Wants
Opadokun strongly defended Tinubu’s tax reforms, describing them as an overdue attempt to correct a broken system.
In Nigeria, he said, only low earning public servants pay tax, while wealthy elites evade responsibility through bribery and loopholes.
Tinubu’s tax agenda, he argued, is a step toward fiscal federalism and fairness. Resistance, he added, is not ideological, it is personal.
Those who benefit from disorder are fighting back.
Security Crisis and the Sahel Pressure
On insecurity, Opadokun admitted Nigeria’s security architecture is failing. But he warned against simplistic conclusions.
Nigeria’s instability, he said, is unfolding within a wider regional crisis, especially the collapse of order across the Sahel. Armed groups are testing Nigeria’s borders, exploiting decades of weak governance.
“This country has been misgoverned for too long,” he said. “It will not be fixed in three years.”
The Original Sin of the Gun
The most unsettling part of Opadokun’s argument returned to January 15, 1966.
He questioned why coup plotters were not immediately tried and why Gen. Aguiyi-Ironsi ignored warnings before introducing Decree 34. Those decisions, he argued, legitimised military intervention and normalised power by force.
Former Commonwealth Secretary General, Chief Emeka Anyaoku, agreed, saying Nigeria was on a progressive path before the military intervened.
Regional governments were developing independently. Federalism worked. The gun destroyed that balance.
SKYTREND NEWS reports that calls for a new people driven constitution dominated discussions at the event.
The Lingering Curse of Centralisation
Veteran journalist Sam Amuka was blunt. Nigeria still lives under gun hegemony.
Power remains concentrated in Abuja. Initiative has died at the regions. Dependency has replaced productivity.
Bishop Matthew Kukah warned that without good governance, the gun may yet return.
The lesson was clear.
Nigeria’s crisis is not about Tinubu alone. It is about a country that never fully escaped military logic.
Until Nigeria confronts the gun in its politics, its economy and its constitution, leaders will change but failure will remain familiar.
